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Distribution · Master playbook

UTAD Playbook

A campaign-level checklist for judging an Upthrust After Distribution without confusing it with a simple breakout failure.

A campaign-level checklist for judging an Upthrust After Distribution without confusing it with a simple breakout failure.

CategoryDistribution
DifficultyMaster
Checklist typeEvidence-led
Risk framingRequired

Professional use note

This playbook is a structured educational checklist. It is not a trading signal, recommendation, or guarantee. Use it only with provenance-labelled charts, alternative scenarios, and risk-first planning.

Definition

UTAD is an upthrust after a distribution structure has already developed. It is a late-stage test of demand after supply has been built into the range, not merely a resistance break.

Best context

  • A mature distribution range exists.
  • Prior supply, buying climax, reaction, and failed rallies can be mapped.
  • The upthrust occurs late in the structure.
  • Return into the range confirms poor acceptance.

Required evidence

  • Distributional character appears before the UTAD.
  • Break above range fails to attract sustained demand.
  • High volume or wide spread creates poor upside result.
  • Return into range leads to lower highs or failed demand.
  • Bearish scenario has clear invalidation.

Decision checklist

What must be true before the playbook is useful?

  1. 1

    Map the background before naming a pattern.

  2. 2

    List the demand evidence and the supply evidence separately.

  3. 3

    Compare volume, spread, close and follow-through.

  4. 4

    Write the preferred thesis and the strongest alternative.

  5. 5

    Define confirmation and invalidation before any decision.

  6. 6

    Accept “unclear” when evidence is mixed.

Confirmation checklist

  • Late-range upthrust with poor acceptance.
  • Supply response after return into range.
  • Failed test near the high.
  • Lower high sequence or break of support.

Invalidation signs

  • Range lacks prior distribution evidence.
  • Breakout is accepted and tested from above.
  • Relative strength remains supportive.
  • Selling is assumed but not observed.

Common traps

  • Calling any upthrust a UTAD.
  • Ignoring phase location.
  • Expecting instant collapse.
  • Refusing to track the bullish alternative.

Risk warning

UTAD is campaign analysis, so exposure should be phased and risk must account for volatility, failed retests and the possibility of reaccumulation.

Practice task

Apply the playbook before you trade the idea.

Build a phase map of a range. Mark where UTAD would be plausible, premature, or invalidated.

Source notes

These sources inform the vocabulary, structural framing, and risk discipline. The playbook itself is an educational operating checklist, not financial advice.